Canadian Labour Market Survey - September Surprise Data!

Finally, Statistics Canada reports believable numbers suggesting that employment was relatively unchanged in September.  The unemployment rate dipped under 7% as fewer youth searched for work.   

Shockingly, the numbers bureau reported a decline in youth job seekers during September when students returned to university and college.  So much for seasonal adjustments but common sense prevails over their typical strange revelations. 

In recent months, Statistics Canada’s has portrayed a roller coaster of economic ups and downs.  The wonky monthly data has proven to be unreliable and inaccurate. It is important to note that the Canadian Labour Market Survey is just that… a “Survey”. The monthly report is not intended to be a fact but that doesn't stop money traders and stock brokers from overreacting to the numbers, It's best to just stand back and observe the silliness.

Unemployment Rate

 

If the economy was really as volatile as the numbers suggest, we would all be in a persistent state of anxiety. The agency reported 11,000 jobs created in September, with 59,000 created in August, job losses in July and a massive 95,000 jobs gained in June.   

Employment and staffing industry professionals know there are far more reliable sources of information than the Statistics Canada Ouija Board Report.  For starters, the Canadian Staffing Index produced by ACSESS (Association of Canadian Search, Employment and Staffing Services) is the largest Canadian sample of actual hours worked and should be viewed as one of the more reliable job indicators.  

According to StatsCan, Canadians gained 212,000 since last September, representing an increase of 1.2%. The number of workers in the job market also grew a similar pace.   Disappointingly, job creation continues to grow faster in part-time employment than full time.  

From the ACSESS website, “The Canadian Staffing Index was 113 in August. The index was unchanged from August a year ago, when the index was also 113.”    The Canadian Staffing Index is based upon actual hours worked for a significantly large sampling of temporary staffing providers in Canada. It is based upon the number of billed hours and is not seasonally adjusted.
  
"The August value of 113 is unchanged from a year ago, which implies flat or slightly positive growth in demand given that there was one fewer working day this August compared to a year ago. For most of 2013, the index has shown a trend of very minimal year-over-year growth in overall demand," says Timothy Landhuis, Research Analyst at Staffing Industry Analysts.

It will be interesting to see how the markets react to the ho-hum information.  My advice continues to be “Buy low, sell high and don’t read too much into the Statistics Canada Ouija Board report on the Labour Market”.

Weird is Normal in Canadian Employment Data

Statistics Canada continues to prove its lack of credibility by reporting another set of bizarre employment numbers for October 2012.  Amidst all the doom and gloom employment reports that pour out of US media, Canadian job creation seems to continue on its consistent but lackluster path to prosperity. In typically Canadian understated fashion, things look pretty good on the north side of the 49^th.

Statistics Canada Employment 1000's

The employment graph shows that Canadian jobs have grown constantly since the low in June of 2008 to our current record high.  While little changed in October 2012, jobs grew over the previous 12 months by 157,000 (+1.4%) in the private sector and 74,000 (+2.1%) in the public sector.  All job growth has been primarily full-time.

In a similar report today from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, America created 171,000 new jobs in October but not enough to budge their persistent unemployment rate off of 7.9%.  The Canadian unemployment rate also remains unchanged at 7.4%.   Canadian net growth of 1,800 jobs in October evoked the same insignificant response as 171,000 new jobs in the US.  It seems that size really does matter. 

The Bizarre

It’s difficult to understand how Statistics Canada can report (with a straight face) that Quebec gained 23,300 part-time jobs during the month of October while Ontario lost 39,800 part-time jobs in the same one month period.  Was there a barista boom in Quebec and a corresponding coffee crash in Ontario? Certainly Quebec students did not all rush out and find part-time jobs in October to start paying for their education. Education in Quebec is practically free!  Notwithstanding the low tuition, they think they shouldn’t have to pay regardless.

It is also difficult to believe the StatsCan monthly report claiming self-employed Canadians decreased in October by 14,900 while employee status workers increased by 16,600.  There aren’t any reasonable explanations for this.  I’m newly self-employed and loving it. I assure you that their estimate is off by at least 1 person if not by 100%.  They reported it, but it probably did not happen.

Do you think it’s true that the Canadian Goods Producing Sectors lost 19,300 jobs while the Services Producing Sector gained 21,000 new jobs? They reported it, but it probably did not happen.

It seems odd (unbelievable) to me that that the bean counters could stand behind a report that points to a huge shift from goods manufacturing jobs to lower level service sector jobs while they also report a counter intuitive shift from part-time to full-time employment?  They reported it but it probably did not happen.

The transportation, logistics and warehousing industry and staffing industry recruiters across the country are struggling to find drivers, warehouse workers, sales representatives, customs brokers, dispatchers and management yet Statistics Canada says the sector lost 7,700 jobs.  They reported it but it probably did not happen.

Statistics Canada can be given some benefit of the doubt.  These numbers are pretty small and small numbers lack statistical significance and therefore lack credibility.  That’s not their fault.  But, if the stock markets and governments are going react, as they typically do, to a jobs report that says we only created 1800 jobs, they should first look a little deeper into the crazy components that make up the overall statistics.   

The reality is that employment opportunities abound.  There are good jobs for good workers.  Employment matters and it’s a great time to be a Canadian.

               Steve Jones

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Health & Safety at Work - Mandatory Posters

Effective October 1, 2012, Ontario Ministry of Labour OHSA health and safety inspectors require Ontario employers to post the new workplace poster called “Health & Safety at Work - Prevention Starts Here”.

The poster has been available from the Ministry of Labour since June. You can download the poster in PDF format from: www.labour.gov.on.ca/english/hs/pubs/posterinfo.php  or you can acquire hard copies for free through ServiceOntario Publications.  Available in 17 languages in pdf format, it can be printed on 8.5” x 11” or 11’ x 17” paper.

 Under the OHSA, employers are required to post the OHSA Act and any explanatory material prepared by the Ministry, which includes this poster.  The new poster summarizes workers’ health and safety rights and responsibilities and the responsibilities of employers and supervisors.  It also reminds employers that they must not take action against workers for following the Act or for raising workplace health and safety concerns. The poster encourages workers to get involved in health and safety and explains when and why to contact the Ministry of Labour.

Steve Jones – Business Leadership Corp.

“When it comes to safety, everyone has the chance to lead”