Statistics
Canada continues to prove its lack of credibility by reporting another set
of bizarre employment numbers for October
2012. Amidst all the doom and gloom employment
reports that pour out of US media, Canadian job creation seems to continue on
its consistent but lackluster path to prosperity. In typically Canadian
understated fashion, things look pretty good on the north side of the 49th.
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| Statistics Canada Employment 1000's |
The employment
graph shows that Canadian jobs have grown constantly since the low in
June of 2008 to our current record high. While little changed in October 2012, jobs grew
over the previous 12 months by 157,000 (+1.4%) in the private
sector and 74,000 (+2.1%) in the public sector. All job growth has been primarily full-time.
In a similar report today from the US Bureau of Labor
Statistics, America created 171,000 new jobs in October but not enough to
budge their persistent unemployment rate off of 7.9%. The Canadian unemployment rate also remains
unchanged at 7.4%. Canadian net growth of 1,800 jobs in October evoked
the same insignificant response as 171,000 new jobs in the US. It seems that size really does matter.
It’s difficult to understand how Statistics Canada can report
(with a straight face) that Quebec gained 23,300 part-time jobs during the
month of October while Ontario lost 39,800 part-time jobs in the same one month
period. Was there a barista boom in
Quebec and a corresponding coffee crash in Ontario? Certainly Quebec students did
not all rush out and find part-time jobs in October to start paying for their
education. Education in Quebec is practically free! Notwithstanding the low tuition, they think they
shouldn’t have to pay regardless.
It is also difficult to believe the StatsCan monthly report claiming
self-employed Canadians decreased in October by 14,900 while employee status
workers increased by 16,600. There aren’t
any reasonable explanations for this. I’m
newly self-employed and loving it. I assure you that their estimate is off by
at least 1 person if not by 100%. They
reported it, but it probably did not happen.
Do you think it’s true that the Canadian Goods Producing Sectors
lost 19,300 jobs while the Services Producing Sector gained 21,000 new jobs? They
reported it, but it probably did not happen.
It seems odd (unbelievable) to me that that the bean counters could
stand behind a report that points to a huge shift from goods manufacturing jobs
to lower level service sector jobs while they also report a counter intuitive
shift from part-time to full-time employment? They reported it but it probably did not
happen.
The transportation, logistics and warehousing industry and staffing
industry recruiters across the country are struggling to find drivers,
warehouse workers, sales representatives, customs brokers, dispatchers and
management yet Statistics Canada says the sector lost 7,700 jobs. They reported it but it probably did not
happen.
Statistics Canada can be given some benefit of the doubt. These numbers are pretty small and small
numbers lack statistical significance and therefore lack credibility. That’s not their fault. But, if the stock markets and governments are
going react, as they typically do, to a jobs report that says we only created 1800
jobs, they should first look a little deeper into the crazy components that
make up the overall statistics.
The reality is that employment opportunities abound. There are good jobs for good workers. Employment matters and it’s a great time to
be a Canadian.
Steve Jones
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