Showing posts with label Statistics Canada. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics Canada. Show all posts

Friday, October 11, 2013

Canadian Labour Market Survey - September Surprise Data!


Finally, Statistics Canada reports believable numbers suggesting that employment was relatively unchanged in September.  The unemployment rate dipped under 7% as fewer youth searched for work.   

Shockingly, the numbers bureau reported a decline in youth job seekers during September when students returned to university and college.  So much for seasonal adjustments but common sense prevails over their typical strange revelations. 


In recent months, Statistics Canada’s has portrayed a roller coaster of economic ups and downs.  The wonky monthly data has proven to be unreliable and inaccurate. It is important to note that the Canadian Labour Market Survey is just that… a “Survey”. The monthly report is not intended to be a fact but that doesn't stop money traders and stock brokers from overreacting to the numbers, It's best to just stand back and observe the silliness.

Unemployment Rate

 

If the economy was really as volatile as the numbers suggest, we would all be in a persistent state of anxiety. The agency reported 11,000 jobs created in September, with 59,000 created in August, job losses in July and a massive 95,000 jobs gained in June.   


Employment and staffing industry professionals know there are far more reliable sources of information than the Statistics Canada Ouija Board Report.  For starters, the Canadian Staffing Index produced by ACSESS (Association of Canadian Search, Employment and Staffing Services) is the largest Canadian sample of actual hours worked and should be viewed as one of the more reliable job indicators.  


According to StatsCan, Canadians gained 212,000 since last September, representing an increase of 1.2%. The number of workers in the job market also grew a similar pace.   Disappointingly, job creation continues to grow faster in part-time employment than full time.  

From the ACSESS website, “The Canadian Staffing Index was 113 in August. The index was unchanged from August a year ago, when the index was also 113.”    The Canadian Staffing Index is based upon actual hours worked for a significantly large sampling of temporary staffing providers in Canada. It is based upon the number of billed hours and is not seasonally adjusted.
  
"The August value of 113 is unchanged from a year ago, which implies flat or slightly positive growth in demand given that there was one fewer working day this August compared to a year ago. For most of 2013, the index has shown a trend of very minimal year-over-year growth in overall demand," says Timothy Landhuis, Research Analyst at Staffing Industry Analysts.

It will be interesting to see how the markets react to the ho-hum information.  My advice continues to be “Buy low, sell high and don’t read too much into the Statistics Canada Ouija Board report on the Labour Market”.




Friday, September 07, 2012

Canadian Jobs Data August 2012

After a disappointing decline in July of 30,000 jobs, Statistics Canada reports that Canadian employment rose by 34,000 in August.  While most job gains on a year-to-date basis have been full-time, the mild bounce back in August was primarily in part-time work.

The Canadian unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.3% compared to the United States at 8.1% as the gap between Canada and United States narrows.

Furthermore, Statistics Canada is well known for its unreliable and inexplicable anomalies in their employment reports meaning that, by their standards, 30,000 one way or the other is statistically insignificant.  In other words…. “Yawn”.

In a similar report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that Americans gained 96,000 jobs in August. Given that the US population is 10 times that of Canada, it is safe to classify the American performance as equally blasé.  Admittedly, 100 thousand here and 100 thousand there will eventually accumulate into millions of jobs for needy families. 12.5 million American remain unemployed in the face of a long a slow recovery.  In comparison and for perspective, it is interesting to note that the entire Canadian workforce is only 18.8 million people and 1.37 million remain unemployed.

For the temporary staffing services industry, August is typically the beginning of the busiest season of the year with hours reaching a crescendo somewhere in late November.  The Association of Canadian Search Employment and Staffing Services (ASCESS) produces Canada’s most reliable employment data in their monthly Canadian Staffing Index which collects and reports over 10 million real hours worked in Canadian staffing firms.  ACSESS reports a 29% increase in year over year hours through to the end of July.  It is thought that the Staffing index is a 30 to 90 day leading indicator of other employment and economic measures.  An increase in temporary help hours typically means that assignments are growing in duration and frequency which eventually translates into more regular employment.  Conversely, a decrease in the staffing index (after seasonal and holiday adjustments) is an ominous foreboding of a turn for the worse.  

In StatCan’s typical unreliable form, they report that the construction sector had the largest one month decline in jobs of 44,000 representing a 3.4% crash.  I don’t need to rely upon my economics degree to suspect that real decline was because construction companies were too busy to answer the silly survey questions.   

Transportation and Warehousing posted the largest employment gains per sector and business, building and other support services posted the second largest monthly gains.  Transportation and Logistics expert Scott Cull from FLS Transport says that "business is hopping with the busiest lanes running from US manufacturers into Canadian markets and new markets emerging due to the droughts which are driving significant changes in where produce comes from and goes to".  


Provincial Summary
In light of the insignificant monthly change, the following is a year over year comparison from August 2011 to August 2012.


- Aug 2011 to Aug 2012 -

Jobs Created/Lost
% change


Newfoundland and Labrador


Jobs Created
6,900.0
3.1
Full-time
10,000.0
5.4
Part-time
(3,100.0)
-8.4

Prince Edward Island


Jobs Created
0.0
0
Full-time
(200.0)
-0.3
Part-time
300.0
2.5
UnJobs Created
300.0
3.2

Nova Scotia


Jobs Created
1,300.0
0.3
Full-time
(4,500.0)
-1.2
Part-time
5,700.0
6.6
Jobs Created rate

...

New Brunswick


Jobs Created
800.0
0.2
Full-time
1,400.0
0.5
Part-time
(500.0)
-0.9

Quebec


Jobs Created
24,500.0
0.6
Full-time
6,500.0
0.2
Part-time
18,000.0
2.4

Ontario


Jobs Created
24,300.0
0.4
Full-time
11,400.0
0.2
Part-time
12,700.0
1

Manitoba


Jobs Created
5,300.0
0.9
Full-time
8,500.0
1.7
Part-time
(3,200.0)
-2.6

Saskatchewan


Jobs Created
18,600.0
3.6
Full-time
12,200.0
2.8
Part-time
6,400.0
7.4

Alberta


Jobs Created
43,300.0
2.1
Full-time
56,400.0
3.2
Part-time
(13,200.0)
-3.6

British Columbia


Jobs Created
51,700.0
2.3
Full-time
70,300.0
4
Part-time
(18,600.0)
-3.5


Hint:  When they say “Social Media Recruitment gets access to the passive candidate”, it does not mean that a recruiter or candidate can passively wait for something to happen.  Social networking requires active participation, engagement and communication.  The phone still works.  If you want to develop a relationship of trust and confidence with a recruiter or candidate, you might try talking.

Steve Jones
Staffing Leadership

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Canadian Staffing Index - June 2011



“Although the Staffing Index remains below the pre-recession 100 level, it is continuing along an encouraging trajectory. On the ground, ACSESS members are reporting anecdotally that temporary assignments are lengthening, more employers are hiring permanent employees with the assistance of staffing companies, and there is a return to the traditional and predictable seasonal fluctuations in Temporary hours,” explained ACSESS President, Bryan Toffey, adding that, “These are all signs of stability and cautious optimism in the Canadian employment market.”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Canadian Staffing Index measures the hours of labour performed by a sampling of temporary and contract staffing in the staffing industry. The data collected is the largest sample size done in Canada provided by a number of Canadian staffing companies and accounts for approximately one third of total staffing industry sales. To preserve confidentiality the data is collected by Staffing Industry Analysts www.staffingindustry.com; an independent company specialized in staffing industry statistics. Data is available for the months starting July 2008 (the benchmark month) to the current month.

In review of similar Index research from the USA, many experts agree staffing industry employment data serves as an economic indicator. Historically, temporary employment improves as overtime hours increase and as unemployment claims decrease. This means the Index can provide a "near real time" indication of how the Canadian economy is performing.

"The Canadian Staffing Index demonstrates both the changes in the Canadian economy and the volatile nature of the staffing business. It is that ability to provide a flexible workforce that brings tremendous value to our clients."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For more information regarding the Canadian Staffing Index contact:

Amanda Curtis, CAE
Executive Director, ACSESS
1-888-232-4962 / 905-826-6869

Sunday, June 20, 2010

ACSESS Staffing Index

Although the Canadian Staffing industry Index is up 19 points over this time last year, industry leaders are looking for explanations for the fact that there was a single point drop in the index last month. They know that business is up so why is the index pointing (slightly) down?

The Canadian Staffing Index is the best data that this country has ever collected on temporary help hours but it is far from perfect. No data is perfect. I have been watching writing and providing editorial on the Statistics Canada monthly Employment data for years and it has some serious flaws too. I put a lot more credibility into the Canadian Staffing Index than I do Stats Can numbers but I also have enough industry insight that I can read between the Staffing Industry numbers

Here are a few insights.

1. The Canadian Staffing Index counts hours of work within a month and it is not adjusted for days of work within the month. April had 22 billable work days minus Good Friday while May only had 21 days minus Victoria Day. That is a 5 percent reduction in the number of days available to work! So when the May Index reports a meager decline in hours worked by only 1%... business activity is really up.

2. Some Staffing companies bill by the week and report their numbers according to their accounting or billing cycles which may have nothing to do with the number of work days within a month. For example, my company will produce 5 sets of weekly invoices during the month of June. This means that my company's number will jump by 25% in June then settle back down again in July. This will happen during 4 months of the year producing an hours growth anomaly.

3. Flat is the new up! A huge portion of temporary help temp to perm transitional work. When the Staffing industry remains flat that means that thousands of workers have transitioned to full time work and new tempo assignments were created and filled. When the temp industry is flat, that means that new jobs are being created.

Here is a copy of the Press release.

May Shows Steady Economic Improvement
ACSESS Staffing Index Indicates a Cautious Recovery



MISSISSAUGA, ON, June 17 /CNW/
- The May 2010 Canadian Staffing Index was released this week by the Association of Canadian Search, Employment & Staffing Services (ACSESS).

The May report shows a slight decrease in temporary and contract hours of 1 point compared to April 2010. The Index also illustrates a healthy 13 point gain as reported in May 2009.

An Index value of 78 indicates the hours of labour supplied by the Canadian Staffing industry during the month of May remained 20% below the 100 Benchmark of July 2008 and 29 points below the industry high reported in October 2008. The Index continues to show a steady recovery but it also reflects the nuances of the temporary and contract staffing industry and the sensitivity of the recovering Canadian economy.

"The validity of the data collected by the ACSESS Canadian Staffing Index is consistent with real time information," says Steve Jones, President of ACSESS. This slight decline in May reflects normal seasonal declines based on college and university students flooding the employment marketplace and being hired into positions staffed by staffing firms during the balance of the year. Jones predicts that based on the data collected, Statistics Canada will report a moderate job increase for June in its upcoming Employment Report to be released at the beginning of July.

Each monthly release of the ACSESS Canadian Staffing Index clearly answers the question, "How's business?" Temporary and contract hours are coincidental with real time economic activity and ACSESS believes serves an excellent indicator for journalists, economists and analysts who are focused on current staffing and employment trends.


About the Canadian Staffing Index:


Hours of labour data is collected by Staffing Industry Analysts, an independent company specializing in the staffing industry. The source data is provided by a representative number of Canadian staffing companies providing services in almost every industry across the country.

The data is collected on a monthly basis, with the initial data capture dating back to July 2008, providing real historical insight into the Canadian staffing landscape.


-------------------------
Date Not Seasonally
Adjusted

-------------------------
Jul-08 100
-------------------------
Aug-08 97
-------------------------
Sep-08 99
-------------------------
Oct-08 107
-------------------------
Nov-08 94
-------------------------
Dec-08 81
-------------------------
Jan-09 75
-------------------------
Feb-09 67
-------------------------
Mar-09 71
-------------------------
Apr-09 70
-------------------------
May-09 65
-------------------------
Jun-09 68
-------------------------
Jul-09 73
-------------------------
Aug-09 70
-------------------------
Sep-09 78
-------------------------
Oct-09 78
-------------------------
Nov-09 77
-------------------------
Dec-09 74
-------------------------
Jan-10 69
-------------------------
Feb-10 71
-------------------------
Mar-10 82
-------------------------
Apr-10 79
-------------------------
May-10 78
-------------------------

About ACSESS


ACSESS is the single voice for promoting best practices and ethical standards for the recruitment, employment and staffing services industry in Canada. For more information visit: (less than)http://www.acsess.org/(greater than) www.acsess.org


About Staffing Industry Analysts


Staffing Industry Analysts is the premier research and analysis firm covering temporary employment and the contingent workforce. Known for its independent and objective insights, the company's proprietary research, data, support tools, publications and executive conferences provide a competitive edge to decision-makers who supply and buy temporary staffing. In addition to temporary staffing, Staffing Industry Analysts also covers these related staffing sectors: third party placement, and staff leasing (PEOs). Founded in 1989, the company is headquartered in Los Altos, California. For more information visit: www.staffingindustry.com


_____________

Steve Jones is the Volunteer President of ACSESS and President of Aimco, Allen, Professional Search, La Banque de Personnel, The Medical Recruitment Network and The People Bank, all divisions of Design Group Staffing Inc. www.thepeoplebank.com